‘Be first, be smarter, or cheat.’
That’s the advice delivered by the Jeremy Irons character in Margin Call, just after his team discovers the firm is sitting on billions in toxic assets. His character is explaining the rules of survival in a financial crisis. What follows is not a thriller in the traditional sense. There’s no chase scene, no fraud, no villain in the shadows yet it still works as a metaphor for finance, fragility, and the illusion of control.
Business aviation isn’t Wall Street. But some of its biggest players have adopted financial models that would not be out of place in a movie.
The illusion of control
Over the past decade, private aviation has grown through access to capital. Subscriptions, prepayments, private equity, debt-backed expansion – these have propped up business models that work well on paper. But aircraft aren’t spreadsheets. They require fuel, engineers, parts, and crews. You can’t trade your way out of a maintenance event.
That’s where the stress begins to show.
One of the biggest names in business aviation is VistaJet – a story of ambition and leverage. VistaJet was built by Thomas Flohr – an ‘asset finance guy’ by his own description. VistaJet acquired aircraft aggressively, struck deals with Bombardier that helped keep the manufacturer afloat, and locked customers into long-term jet card contracts. By 2024, Vista had one of the largest fleets in private aviation.
Behind the glossy marketing and Global 7500s, the numbers are troubling. Vista has racked up $4.4 billion in debt. Over four years, it posted $436 million in net losses. It reported customer prepayments of $831 million for hours not yet flown – while holding just $134 million in cash. Auditor EY warned of ‘material uncertainty’ over whether the business could continue as a going concern.
It’s all legal. It’s all been disclosed, but its fragile: the business is now dependent on customer confidence, aircraft values, and low financing costs. If any of these shifts, the model starts to creak.
Another business jet story that has hit the headlines is Wheels Up. The US-based operator is now majority-owned by Delta, with additional backing from Knighthead Capital and Cox Enterprises. Like Vista, Wheels Up pitched convenience and certainty. But unlike Vista, it struggled in public. It grew fast, went public, and then went into a tailspin. Membership dropped by nearly half, revenues fell 37% year over year. The fleet shrank from 185 to 154 aircraft.
Late in 2024, something changed. December was the best month in the company’s history and it (almost) broke even. The turnaround is happening with fewer customers, a smaller footprint and a strategy dependent on efficiency and discipline—not growth.
Wheels Up is now majority-owned by Delta, along with hedge funds and private equity.
Financial logic meets operational friction
This isn’t just about Vista or Wheels Up. Business aviation has been shaped by financial tools designed to delay risk: forward bookings, prepaid hours, leaseback deals, aggressive depreciation assumptions. These tools work well – until they don’t.
Maintenance costs are rising. Labour is tight. Margins are thin. Unlike software or consumer goods, scaling in aviation usually means taking on risk – leasing more jets, borrowing more capital, adding more exposure.
If the demand slows down, the bills don’t. And if confidence starts to fray, the problems get harder to hide.
Why this matters to everyone in Business
If one of the major players slips, the shock won’t stay isolated. A mass of aircraft hitting the market could depress resale values. Brokers relying on Vista’s or Wheels Up’s capacity will be forced to find alternatives. Lenders will reassess risk and values could drop. Aircraft values underpin loans, lease agreements, and long-term planning. When they move, everything moves.
Smaller operators – many already struggling with crew costs, engine delays, and financing pressure—may get caught in the ripple effect.
Who holds the risk?
Flohr says he hasn’t taken a salary in 19 years. Wheels Up’s CEO says December was a turning point.
That may be true. But as Margin Call reminds us, when the stress test in business aviation comes, survival in these moments isn’t about who’s right – it’s about who’s left holding the bag.
So, who will be left holding the business aviation bag?
