“You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”
— Buckminster Fuller

Supply chains remain a pain point for every sector. In business aviation, the problems are far from abstract. Delays, parts shortages, and the long wait for replacement engines are grounding aircraft, frustrating owners, and putting pressure on the value of engine programs.

Many operators are left waiting with no clear answers, especially when older aircraft are involved. At CJI London 2025, the mood was plain: whether it’s scheduling maintenance, sourcing parts, or getting technicians in place, the whole system feels out of sync.

Yes, there are more staff as talent moved from commercial aviation to business aviation. However, the technology shortage is getting worse than the people shortage and there are growing frustrations with the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across the board. The reason: a feeling that OEM’s have become focused on the more expensive, newer, larger aircraft as this generates greater revenue and can offer better financing options.

A major source of friction is engine availability and maintenance times. Problems with cost of overhauls, maintenance and lack of loaners are making engine programs less attractive and a real risk/reward question for aircraft owners. This problem becomes exacerbated in cases where there are non routine engine reviews including unadvised borescopes during a pre-purchase inspection – inevitably where you go looking for a problem you will find one! Once a problem is identified and either there are insufficient parts to remedy the issue, or, there’s no loaner engine available – and increasingly, there isn’t – the aircraft stays on the ground and/or the sale is halted.  We all know that even one day on the ground has a huge impact on utilisation and purchasers become edgy when they are told there is a delay due to an engine problem.

What is a potential answer? The answer cannot be just ‘hold more inventory’ or ‘hire more staff’. Part of the solution must be better planning.

‘Digital twin’ technology may offer a way forward. Digital twins create a virtual replica of an aircraft’s systems – engines included – and use real-time data to model performance, anticipate wear, and predict failure before it happens.

This is not a theoretical exercise. A digital twin built around an aircraft’s maintenance history and sensor inputs can offer a clearer picture of engine condition than a one-off inspection.

For newer aircraft, this kind of predictive modelling could reduce the need for invasive boroscopes, limit surprise findings, and allow for better scheduling of shop visits. That means fewer surprises and more certainty in ownership.

The snag? Not every aircraft is ready for it. Older models lack the sensor infrastructure needed to generate the right data. Even with the data, most MROs and operators don’t have the technical teams in place to build and use a digital twin. There’s also the question of training. Skilled engineers are in short supply. Data scientists even more so. It’s not a question of throwing software at the problem—it’s about finding people who know how to use it, and making the investment to support them.

Digital twins won’t fix everything. But they’re a good example of the kind of solution that could shift the conversation—from reactive maintenance to predictive planning.

The key for business aviation – as we pointed out in Chapter #1 – is to be adaptive. Not every aircraft will suit this approach, and not every operator needs it. But for those looking to avoid grounding events, reduce overhaul risk, and make better decisions about fleet health, it may be the right tool for the job. The broader point is this: in an environment where parts are scarce, people are stretched, and downtime is expensive, new ways of thinking and new technologies are essential.

In our next installment we will focus on whether Europe has become a problem child, why it has gained this reputation and what, if anything, can be done to change it…